Economy on stable footing, experts say

From:China Daily Date:2024-04-15【Font:large regular

China's economy has started 2024 on a stable footing, indicating a sustained trajectory of robust recovery throughout the year, despite pressures and challenges both at home and abroad, officials and analysts said on Thursday.

Analysts said they believe that China's economic conditions would continue to improve in the following months with more policy measures expected to help expand effective investment and bolster a consumer-led recovery.

An official of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, told China Daily on Thursday that "the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy has not changed and will not change". The remarks came after Fitch Ratings recently revised the outlook on China's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to negative from stable.

The official said that China's economy still enjoys favorable conditions and positive factors, given its powerful industrial production capacity, a complete industrial system, continuously strengthening innovation capabilities and its ultra-large domestic market.

"China's economy enjoys a solid foundation, strong resilience and dynamism, and great potential and vitality," the official said. "Looking ahead, its long-term positive trend will remain unchanged."

The NDRC official said that "the economy performed stably this year", as fixed-asset investment jumped 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first two months of the year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth in 2023. Barring real estate, fixed-asset investment grew 8.9 percent during the January-February period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

China's economy is showing signs of stabilization, with improvement in indicators such as exports, industrial production and investment.

Given China's better-than-expected economic performance, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have both raised their outlook for China's economic growth this year.

Morgan Stanley has revised China's 2024 real gross domestic product forecast from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 5 percent from the 4.8 percent earlier expected, and it also revised China's first-quarter GDP growth forecast from 4.5 percent to 5 percent.

In the next step, the official said China will "give full play to the guiding role of government investment", adjust and optimize the structure of investment from the central government budget and appropriately expand the scope of investment in local government special bonds and the scope of the project capital.


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